Dalio Warnings and Gold's Resilience: The 'Stage 5' Macro Thesis

While Gold (XAU/USD) prices drifted lower during Tuesday's Asian session, snapping a two-day winning streak, the long-term bullish narrative received significant support from Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio.

Dalios “Stage 5” Warning

In a comprehensive macro analysis, Dalio warned that the United States has entered “Stage 5” of the Big Cycle—a precursor to potential order collapse characterized by extreme political polarization and financial instability.

Crucially for forex and commodity traders, Dalio highlighted the inevitability of central bank money printing to address deficits, a mechanism he argues will devalue the Dollar and fiat currencies relative to hard assets.

“Gold is the only asset that is not someone else's liability.” — Ray Dalio

Strategic Data Snapshots

• Recommended Allocation: 5% to 15% of investment portfolios.
• Role of Gold: Crucial alternative currency for liquidity during debt crises.

Technicals & Market Reaction

Despite the gravity of Dalio's long-term outlook, short-term price action shows XAU/USD facing resistance below the psychological $5,000 mark. A positive risk tone in equity markets has temporarily tempered safe-haven demand, but the downside remains limited as investors await clearer cues from US indicators.