The U.S Dollar had a difficult year & technical analysis is revealing something unexpected...
What has happened to the U.S. dollar in 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?
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Abstract:DXY has slid as more as 10% since this March and the losses have deepened in recent weeks amid the second wave of the pandemic. The theoretical dollar smile has flattened, sending a painful “grin” to investors instead.
WikiFX News (8 Aug)- DXY has slid as more as 10% since this March and the losses have deepened in recent weeks amid the second wave of the pandemic. The theoretical dollar smile has flattened, sending a painful “grin” to investors instead.
Capital Ltd., the U.S. currency tends to increase in value against other currencies when the U.S. economy is weak. It goes up at either end of the spectrum, just like the smile on your face. Actually, after hitting the high in March, the greenback continuously slumped to a two-year low in July. In this regard, it should have poised for a rally in theory.
But the assumption he made turned out to be wrong. The dollar has languished as rising infections and mortality from the pandemic sapped appetite for the currency as a haven. The dollar smile has flattened and turned into a painful “grin”.
According to Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, the dollar has suffered from a very serious decline during the whole month of July. Interest rates are going down, and that makes the dollar much less attractive, but the market is starting to become aware of the political risk of the dollar. He thus made a bold prediction that the dollar was heading for a crash and the world gold standard system would rise again.

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What has happened to the U.S. dollar in 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady near 98.00, supported by a mix of technical recovery and external currency weakness. While markets await definitive signals on the Fed's 2026 cutting cycle, technical breakdowns in major peers are driving price action.

The divergence between Federal Reserve guidance and market pricing is widening as traders position for 2026, setting the stage for significant volatility in the US Dollar. While the Fed’s latest dot plot conservatively suggests a single 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026, major financial institutions—including Goldman Sachs and Citi—are pricing in a more aggressive easing cycle of 50 to 75 basis points.

The market capitalization of the six largest US banks surged by approximately $600 billion in 2025, driven by a dual tailwind of financial deregulation and a resurgence in investment banking. This rally has widened the valuation divergence between American lenders and their European counterparts, reinforcing a theme of US financial exceptionalism that continues to influence global capital flows.