The U.S Dollar had a difficult year & technical analysis is revealing something unexpected...
What has happened to the U.S. dollar in 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?
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Abstract:After all three of the major US stock indices went up yesterday, the market’s risk appetite was also reflected in currencies, including AUD and NZD.
WikiFX News (June 2th) - After all three of the major US stock indices went up yesterday, the markets risk appetite was also reflected in currencies: both Australian and New Zealand dollars surged yesterday, while the safe haven yen and US dollar dropped.
Fueled by central bank‘s stimulus and certain degrees of complacency, the stock market’s rally has been severely at odds with the fundamental situations, being termed as “surrealism” and “optimism” by some analysis.
This upbeat sentiment has spread from US to the Asia-Pacific stock market.
The Nikkei 225 index opened higher, which also boosted the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars, while the US dollar and Japanese yen were flat overall.
In terms of the Asian session, investors should particularly pay attention to the Reserve Bank of Australias interest rate decision. The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 0.25% unchanged and keep 3-year government bond yield target at 0.25%. The policy announcement is expected to trigger fluctuation of the Aussie.
AUD/USD surged significantly after breaching above 0.6642, the previous resistance which has currently become a support level. The pair may again test the January high of 0.6911 and could even pass this level to challenge 0.7032, which is the highest in several months.

Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.

What has happened to the U.S. dollar in 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady near 98.00, supported by a mix of technical recovery and external currency weakness. While markets await definitive signals on the Fed's 2026 cutting cycle, technical breakdowns in major peers are driving price action.

The divergence between Federal Reserve guidance and market pricing is widening as traders position for 2026, setting the stage for significant volatility in the US Dollar. While the Fed’s latest dot plot conservatively suggests a single 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026, major financial institutions—including Goldman Sachs and Citi—are pricing in a more aggressive easing cycle of 50 to 75 basis points.

The market capitalization of the six largest US banks surged by approximately $600 billion in 2025, driven by a dual tailwind of financial deregulation and a resurgence in investment banking. This rally has widened the valuation divergence between American lenders and their European counterparts, reinforcing a theme of US financial exceptionalism that continues to influence global capital flows.