Oil Surges, Copper Hits Record Highs as Chip Stocks Power Through U.S.-Iran Deadlock

Market Overview

Escalating tensions in U.S.-Iran negotiations, combined with President Donald Trump warning that the ceasefire agreement remains “extremely fragile,” capped broader gains in U.S. equities. However, continued strength in semiconductor stocks once again carried the market higher. All three major U.S. indexes posted a second consecutive day of gains, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and semiconductor index all climbed to fresh record highs.

On the macro front, the UK Prime Ministers attempt to calm markets failed to restore confidence. With geopolitical tensions still unresolved, both U.S. and UK government bond yields rebounded as investors rotated toward hard-tech names and commodities in search of clearer conviction trades.

Asset Performance Breakdown■ Semiconductors & Technology Stocks

The semiconductor index surged 2.6%, extending its rally to another all-time high. Qualcomm jumped more than 8%, while Micron Technology gained 6.5%. NVIDIA posted its fourth straight advance and closed at a record high once again.

The optical communications sector also saw explosive upside momentum. Lumentum Holdings soared 16.5% ahead of its upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, while Coherent rallied more than 13% amid market speculation surrounding the CEOs visit to China.

Meanwhile, stablecoin-related sentiment remained red-hot, with Circle Internet Group surging nearly 16% following earnings.

■ Energy & Commodities

The breakdown in negotiations reignited bullish momentum in crude oil markets. Both WTI and Brent crude climbed sharply during the session, gaining more than 5% and nearly 5%, respectively.

In metals markets, delayed production resumption at a major Indonesian copper mine sparked fresh supply concerns. Both LME copper and COMEX copper rallied nearly 3%, pushing prices to new historical highs.

Precious metals experienced dramatic intraday reversals. Gold initially fell more than 1% before rebounding into positive territory, while silver futures staged an even more violent recovery, swinging from a near 2% loss to an intraday gain exceeding 7%.

■ Bonds & Foreign Exchange

Rising inflation expectations pressured bond prices lower and pushed Treasury yields higher. The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded after briefly touching its lowest level in more than two months.

Meanwhile, the offshore Chinese yuan demonstrated remarkable resilience, surging more than 100 pips intraday and breaking below the 6.79 level against the dollar for the first time in three years.

■ Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin experienced sharp two-way volatility. After falling more than 2% during the session, Bitcoin rebounded aggressively and briefly reclaimed the $82,000 level, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish positioning.

Key Themes Ahead● Shanghai Composite Breaks Above 4,200, Hits Highest Level in Nearly 11 Years

Chinese equities extended their rally, with advancing stocks significantly outnumbering decliners across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets. More than 3,000 stocks closed higher, while total turnover reached RMB 3.57 trillion.

Trading volume across the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges totaled RMB 3.54 trillion, marking the fourth-highest reading of the year and an increase of RMB 490.3 billion from the previous session. Daily turnover has now exceeded RMB 3 trillion for four consecutive trading days.

Sector-wise, semiconductors and AI hardware supply chains led gains again, with memory chips, GPUs, and CPO-related names outperforming. Rare earths, innovative pharmaceuticals, solar energy, and commercial aerospace stocks also remained active, while shipping, gold, and lithium mining shares underperformed.

● UK Gilts Come Under Heavy Selling Pressure

Political instability in the UK triggered another wave of volatility in the bond market. Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a closely watched speech aimed at stabilizing his leadership position. Although he firmly rejected calls to resign and proposed pro-Europe initiatives alongside steel industry nationalization plans, markets remained unconvinced.

With internal party challengers gaining momentum and fiscal policy expectations still unclear, the yield on the UK 30-year gilt rose 9 basis points to 5.67%, underperforming comparable European sovereign bonds.

Key Events to Watch (GMT+8)

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