Oil Markets on Edge: OPEC+ Holds Firm Amid Venezuelan Turmoil

Global crude benchmarks Brent and WTI face a complex week ahead as supply-side constraints clash with geopolitical shocks. While OPEC+ appears poised to maintain its current production caps, the sudden US military intervention in Venezuela has added a new layer of uncertainty to global energy flows.

OPEC+ Consensus: Stability Over Volume

Delegates from the OPEC+ alliance indicate that the group is highly likely to keep its current oil output policy unchanged at Sunday's meeting. Despite political friction between key members Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding Yemen, the collective priority remains managing market surplus.

Venezuela: The Supply Illusion

The recent US military raid in Caracas and the detention of President Maduro has sparked speculation regarding a potential return of Venezuelan crude to global markets. However, energy analysts caution against expecting an immediate supply flood.

Market Outlook

Traders should monitor CAD for volatility correlated with oil price swings. While the geopolitical risk premium provides support, the lack of immediate investment commitment in Venezuela and OPEC's conservative stance suggests prices may remain range-bound, capped by demand-side concerns in China and Europe.