Gold Prices to Fluctuate This Week Amid July 9 Tariff Deadline, Fed Policy

Gold prices are likely to fluctuate sharply this week as traders keep a close eye on the announcements regarding the US import tariff policy, US Federal Reserves take on interest rate cuts, key economic data releases, among others. The price of the yellow metal has already been grabbing headlines since the advent of the geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran last month.

For the first time in the countrys history, the gold price in India for 10 grams breached the INR 1-lakh mark last month. Although it has fallen from that level with the ceasefire announced between Israel and Iran, prices could still breach that level if economic uncertainty prevails owing to the key decisions to be made by the US administration and its central bank.

Analysts Viewpoints on Gold Prices Ahead of Key Developments

Analysts feel that traders would remain cautious ahead of policy cues, especially from the US, and geopolitical situations. These factors would greatly dictate the direction of gold prices in India in the near term. The 90-day deadline pertaining to import tariff pause on countries involving India is set to be over on July 9, 2025. If the deadline does not extend, that would mean additional 26% import duty on Indian goods shipped to the US. This might rattle markets.

US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut Commentary, Trade Negotiations to Shape Gold Price

The market will now keep a close watch on the US Federal Reserve interest rate cut commentary (if any), outcomes resulting from US trade negotiations, and new macroeconomic data from any key economy will impact investors‘ sentiment for gold across spot and futures markets, says Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd. The Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes about to be released this week will likely grab investors attention. It will likely provide clarity on when and how much the rate cut will be announced in the Federal Reserve Meeting.

Last week saw gold prices at MCX for August futures rising by INR 1,563.

Expect More Volatility in the Bullion Market Amid US Fiscal Deficit Concerns, Solid Economic Data

Globally, gold price hovers around $3,345 per ounce. The solid US job data has somewhat lowered the expectations of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July 2025, said the Head of Commodities Desk and CRM at Ventura, N S Ramaswamy.

Ramaswamy added, even though gold rallied with a few corrections recently, gold prices may consolidate in the near term with corrective upward rises. Following which, the prices will hit the downward trend.

Growing US fiscal deficit concerns and the likely return of Trumps tariff policies may again drive volatility in gold prices and make investors resort to the yellow metal to absorb weak global economic cues.

Weak Dollar, Central Bank Purchase May Drive Gold Prices Higher

Gold prices drove upward in both 2024 and 2025 amid a weak dollar index and geopolitical conflicts, according to DVP Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, Prathamesh Mallya. He added that the trend will continue for the rest of 2025.

Central banks across various regions bought around 20 tonnes of gold and added the same to the global reserves in May 2025. It only underscores their belief in the yellow metal as a long-term hedge against economic wobble.

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