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Abstract：Gold prices have been highly volatile, trading near record highs due to various economic and geopolitical factors. Last week's weak US employment data, with only 114,000 jobs added and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts, boosting gold's appeal. Tensions in the Middle East further support gold as a safe-haven asset. Technical analysis suggests that gold prices might break above $2,477, potentially reachin
Gold Price Reaches Record Levels Amid Weak US Jobs Data
At the end of last week's trading, gold prices surged to over $2,476 per ounce, marking a new record high. This increase came after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, which heightened market speculation about a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve. The US economy added only 114,000 jobs in July, significantly below the forecast of 175,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
Gold Expected to Reach $2,900 by August 2024
Analysts are optimistic, predicting that gold could reach as high as $2,900 per ounce by August 2024. The current dip in gold prices is seen as temporary before a significant rally. Key support levels are anticipated around $2,225 to $2,265 per ounce.
Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by up to 100 basis points this year, driven by a series of weak economic indicators, including the recent jobs report and a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This dovish outlook has weakened the US dollar, providing additional support for gold prices.
Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Investors are moving away from large-cap tech stocks to fixed-income assets and gold in response to disappointing corporate earnings and broader economic concerns.
Monday, August 5
China Caixin Services PMI (Jul)
Time:09:45 GMT+8
Description:Measures the performance of the service sector. A higher-than-expected reading is seen as positive for the economy and can impact demand for gold.
Impact:Medium
FX Pair:USD/CNY
Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) (Jun)
Time:17:00 GMT+8
Description:Measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. Higher PPI readings can lead to increased inflation expectations, which is positive for gold as an inflation hedge.
Impact:Medium
FX Pair:EUR/USD
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Time:22:00 GMT+8
Description:Measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A higher reading indicates expansion, which can impact gold prices.
Impact:High
FX Pair:XAU/USD
Tuesday, August 6
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision
Time:12:30 GMT+8
Description:The decision on short-term interest rates. Changes in interest rates can impact gold prices as they influence currency strength and inflation expectations.
Impact:High
FX Pair:AUD/USD
Wednesday, August 7
US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Time:22:30 GMT+8
Description:Measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Oil prices can influence inflation expectations, impacting gold prices.
Impact:Medium
FX Pair:XAU/USD
Thursday, August 8
US Initial Jobless Claims
Time:20:30 GMT+8
Description:Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Higher claims can indicate a weakening economy, impacting gold as a safe-haven asset.
Impact:Medium
FX Pair:XAU/USD
Friday, August 9
UK GDP (Q2)
Time:14:00 GMT+8
Description:Measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A significant impact on the GBP, which can indirectly affect XAU/USD.
Impact:Medium
FX Pair:GBP/USD
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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