Crypto Takes Centre Stage in 2024 US Presidential Election?

As the US presidential election draws nearer, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have emerged as pivotal political topics. This shift is due in part to the industry's relative youth; during the 2020 election, Bitcoin had only been around for eleven years, Ethereum for five, and key DeFi protocols like Maker, Uniswap, and Compound were only a few years old. Fast forward to 2024, and the landscape has dramatically evolved. Spot BTC ETFs operated by financial giants like BlackRock and Vanguard are now part of the traditional finance (TradFi) ecosystem, with spot ETH ETFs set to launch later this summer. Moreover, a recent report indicates that 40% of Americans now hold crypto, making it an issue too significant to ignore.

Wall Street's embrace of bitcoin, independent of political leanings, and a crypto-hostile SEC have pushed industry leaders into defensive positions. This has led to increased alignment with and influence over pro-crypto political candidates. For the crypto industry, battling the SEC and an unfriendly Biden administration necessitates support for a pro-crypto alternative.

This election cycle, a pro-crypto candidate is essential, incentivizing candidates to create and promote pro-crypto policies. The Trump camp, supported by prominent figures in the crypto industry, exemplifies this dynamic.

At the end of June, Jesse Powell, founder of the major crypto exchange Kraken, announced on X (formerly Twitter) that he had donated $1 million, mostly in ETH, to Donald Trump. Powell described Trump as the “only pro-crypto major party candidate in the 2024 Presidential election,” blaming the Democrat administration and the SEC for a “campaign of unchecked regulation by enforcement.” Powell's post concluded with the hashtag “#freeross,” referencing Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the online black market Silk Road, who is serving a double life sentence plus forty years without parole. Trump‘s pledge to commute Ulbricht’s sentence if elected highlights his appeal to veteran bitcoiners who view Ulbrichts punishment as excessively harsh.

Powell is not alone in his support. The Winklevoss twins, founders of Gemini, and ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood have also backed Trump. Wood stated her voting intentions are driven by economics, favouring Trump on that basis. In June, a Trump fundraiser was hosted by tech entrepreneur David Sacks in San Francisco, and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman expressed an indirect endorsement, urging the country to support Trump.

Additionally, Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey revealed in May that his organization is collaborating with the Trump campaign to develop its bitcoin and crypto policy agenda. This announcement preceded Trump‘s campaign accepting crypto donations and Trump’s public commitment to champion US bitcoin mining.

Last month, VanEck and 21Shares filed applications for spot SOL ETFs. While spot BTC and ETH ETFs have been approved, a Solana fund seemed unlikely due to its risk profile and lack of a futures market. Some speculate that these applications are a bet on a Trump presidency, anticipating crypto-friendly changes at the SEC. Dan Gallagher, current CLO at Robinhood and former SEC commissioner, is one potential candidate for SEC Chairperson under a Trump administration, expected to adopt a more open-minded approach to crypto.

Speculation about appointments aside, the Supreme Courts recent overruling of the Chevron Doctrine is expected to shift interpretative power away from regulatory agencies like the SEC and back towards the courts. This could limit the SEC's ability to enforce its rules aggressively, aligning with the crypto industry's calls for regulatory clarity.

As the 2024 election approaches, the crypto industry, frustrated with US regulators, sees a significant opportunity. The alignment with pro-crypto political candidates could shape the future regulatory landscape, making the upcoming election a critical juncture for the crypto world.